Mysterious Polymarket Bettor Wagers $40,000 on Imminent US Strike on Iran
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Moneycontrol•15-01-2026, 14:43
Mysterious Polymarket Bettor Wagers $40,000 on Imminent US Strike on Iran
- •A Polymarket user, 'mutualdelta', placed a $40,000 bet on a US military strike on Iran occurring by January 14.
- •This high-risk wager goes against broader market sentiment, which assigned only a 9% probability to a near-term strike.
- •The bet has already lost over $20,000, but a confirmed strike by the deadline would result in a full payout.
- •Longer-dated Polymarket contracts show higher probabilities for a US strike by end of January (65%) and June 30 (74%).
- •The bet comes amidst heightened geopolitical tensions, Pentagon deliberations, and conflicting signals regarding a strike.
Why It Matters: A Polymarket bettor made a $40,000 contrarian wager on an immediate US strike on Iran despite low market odds.
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