Trader Loses Rs 36 Lakh on Polymarket Betting on US-Iran Strike Deadline
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Moneycontrol•16-01-2026, 11:56
Trader Loses Rs 36 Lakh on Polymarket Betting on US-Iran Strike Deadline
- •A trader lost over Rs 36 lakh on Polymarket after betting on a US military strike against Iran by January 14, which did not occur.
- •The trader opened a new account and placed numerous bets on the same outcome without any hedge, leading to a total loss when the deadline passed.
- •Despite this loss, Polymarket data still shows a 54-55% chance of a US attack on Iran before June 30, indicating the market expects escalation later.
- •Prediction markets like Polymarket allow trading on real-world events, with prices reflecting implied probabilities, but war-related contracts are highly volatile.
- •The incident highlights the risks of single-outcome, short-term bets in geopolitics, emphasizing that prediction markets reflect sentiment, not certainty.
Why It Matters: A trader's Rs 36 lakh loss on Polymarket underscores the high risks of betting on geopolitical events.
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